Scenario Modeling

Predict urban development patterns and trends.

Analyze the impact of alternative land use regulations and transportation investments on urban development and on key performance indicators.

Compare multiple scenarios, incorporate new policy or investment changes, and explore impacts on the community.

Support planning and analysis of urban development, incorporating the interactions between land use, transportation, the economy, and the environment.

Explore the effects of infrastructure and policy choices on community outcomes such as motorized and non-motorized accessibility, housing affordability, greenhouse gas emissions, and the protection of open space and environmentally sensitive habitats.

Quickly configure and launch UrbanSim simulations harnessing cloud-based scalability. Deliver actionable insights regardless of in-house technical expertise.

 
Collage of 3D buildings, a line chart, and map with text that reads "What might happen if we pull these levers?" and "Shift Residential Capacity +10% for the Design District Specific Plan Area" and "Shift Employment Capacity +10% for Entire Region"

Applicable for any role in the development process…

 
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Connect Internal Data or Leverage Ours

The block-level UrbanSim template comes ready to go with employment, household, and socioeconomic data for almost 400 Metropolitan Planning Organizations across the United States and street networks from OpenStreetMap to compute accessibility metrics.

Alternatively, upload your own data and we will make sure it’s ready for the model though comprehensive diagnostic reports. We provide our cloud-based tools for automated model specification and calibration, and generate model validation reports to prepare the model for operational use.

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Add Real Estate, Zoning, and Policy Levers

Rapidly create new policy and investment scenarios and run UrbanSim simulations to explore their impacts on the real-estate market. Insert development project information such as quantities of residential units, timing, location, and characteristics like unit affordability.

Easily test different alternative land use policies by creating new zoning designations or development constraints at the parcel, census block, or zonal level. Specify detailed zoning designation information including: floor-area-ratios, setbacks, building types, unit density, lot coverage, and max heights.

Alter the development feasibility calculus for specific time periods and locations in order to, for example, upzone blocks surrounding a new transit station in the year 2025.

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Run Multiple Simulations on the Cloud

Quickly compose multiple scenarios representing a suite of land use and transportation policies. Specify which inputs to incorporate into a scenario such as: model base data and transportation network, travel model skims, household and employment control totals, and vacancy rates. Include specific development projects, development constraints, and model adjustments.

After composing different scenarios, run an unlimited amount of UrbanSim simulations on the cloud simultaneously. For most metropolitan areas, simulations run in well under a minute per simulation year. Create an interactive environment for rapid exploration, productivity, and quality of the results with thorough testing.

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Visualize Indicators

Compute indicators and interrogate simulation results. When simulation runs have finished, indicators give you the ability to summarize and compare results between runs and the base-year at a variety of spatial aggregations ranging from the parcel to the census block to the county and even your own zonal geographies. These calculated indicators can be downloaded for use elsewhere or can be visualized as a 2D or 3D map for a specific year or for a time-series. Indicators that can be calculated include: densities, transportation network accessibility queries, and summary statistics.

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Engage Stakeholders and Incorporate Feedback

Sometimes, to improve accuracy and incorporate local input, simulation results may need to be adjusted based on local expertise and policy input from stakeholders in the planning process. The 'refinement' feature, allows you to assert values of specific prediction outcomes for a location. Perhaps you need to assert a target number of households for a specific year. These model adjustments can be assigned to specific time periods and geographies in your region and associated with a scenario.

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Integrate with Your Travel Model

Additionally, we offer consulting services to connect your travel model to UrbanSim to facilitate two-way feedback between changes in land use and accessibility over time, in order to capture the complex interrelationships between transportation and land use.

 

Which Level Model Should You Choose?

  • Parcel Level Model

    Parcel Level Model

    The most detailed and powerful of the model applications of UrbanSim use individual buildings and parcels to represent location.

    Most of the current UrbanSim users among Metropolitan Planning Organizations in the United States use UrbanSim at this level.

  • Block Level Model

    Census Block Level Model

    For metropolitan areas within the United States, this is the fastest way to begin using UrbanSim.

    Households and jobs are represented at the individual level, and locations are represented at the census block level, with aggregated buildings of each type, by census block.

  • Zone Level Model

    Zone Level Model

    For metropolitan areas outside the United States, this is the fastest means to build a UrbanSim model.

    The zone level model has essentially the same structure as the census block model, but the locations are generically defined as zones, and the models are not pre-built.

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